Tuesday, 18 December 2018
Let''s remember that the official Tory policy was to oppose Brexit (they even sent out a propaganda booklet to every home). Cameron lost to a coalition of Labour Leave, UKIP and "some" Tories (Boris and Gove).
Because the Tory cabinet lost the vote they (grudgingly) had to proceed with implementing the policy. However, they picked a remain supporter to succeed Cameron, and she in turn created a Brexit policy designed to appeal to both the Leave and Remain camps, rather than the winning side.
The problem is that there is not a political party in parliament that represents the 52% who voted to scrap the Treaty of Rome. If there were then it could be trusted to push through what people voted for.
Such a party may not be in favour of allowing hardship on the current scale, because it would be largely comprised of the poor (the people who voted for Brexit - those the political commentators disparagingly class as "left behind", as if sudden wealth would make them turn into remainers.....)
Thursday, 13 December 2018
No Deal Brexit: the REAL reason the EU fears it. In layman's terms.
1) The EU wishes to control and negotiate trade deals on behalf of national governments but EU businesses that wish to trade with the UK will seek to by-pass the EU and continue to trade with the UK.
2) Businessmen are in business to make a profit. Given the choice between adhering to EU diktats that may prevent lucrative trade with the UK, or ignoring them, the businesses will choose the latter option.
3) If the EU is seen as hitting their profits, as a result of lost trade with the UK, then EU businessmen affected will lose faith in the EU and provide financial support to Eurosceptics.
4) In this country, if there is a scarcity of certain products; if imports become more expensive due to EU tariffs, then a void will appear that needs filling. That's how private enterprise works - that's what the Tories always used to tell us....
Scarcity will lead to demand. That demand will be filled by British businesses producing local equivalents at a cheaper price (no internal tariffs). The banks will fund this due to guaranteed profits due to decreased competition. .
5) The needs for manufacturing in a "no deal" scenario will shift the economic focus away from services and finance, effectively killing the neoliberal model in the UK and increasing the power of the working class. As more people HAVE to "buy British" the demand will decrease UK unemployment too, meaning a sharp reduction in the amount of welfare assistance the government has to supply. That will release funds for investment.
6) A NO DEAL Brexit would mean no more money to the EU - which would finance the scrapping of VAT thus making UK goods cheaper, would allow a reduction in national debt and many other economy boosting measures - making a self-reliant Britain more likely.
7) And lastly, If the UK shows it can be more self-reliant, with home production, other nations will not fear leaving the EU. We could see the collapse of the EU.
This is the upshot of last night's vote.
1) The Tories are stuck with Theresa May until March 29th 2019.
2) Any General Election between now and then would be fought with her as leader, not a Boris or David Davies figure...
3) That means a potential loss of votes to "No Deal" Brexit parties, which could be sufficient to lose them seats.
4) Knowing that, if the Labour Party calls a vote of no confidence in the government every single Tory MP will vote with Theresa May, regardless of how they voted in the leadership election.
5) If Labour tries and fails to topple the weakest PM in a generation, then they will end up discredited in the eyes of their members.
6) Therefore the chances of an advanced General Election are lessened.
7) On 12/12/18 Tory MPs weren't just voting about May as a leader. It was more about her version of Brexit. They knew that her replacement could have supported "no deal", but if they voted for THAT then sufficient Tory Remain MPs would have departed the party to join the Lib Dems or perhaps another Remain party, leaving the existing Tories with a better policy, but so depleted in MPs that the government would have been ousted by the opposition (swelled by the Tory defectors).
8) Therefore the next Tory leader will be in the same mould as Theresa May, judging by the voting stats, and will back the Chequers Deal.
9) The 37% NO DEAL wing of the Tories are damned now. If they leave the party, the government falls. If they stay, then they are to be viewed as propping the treacherous 63% who backed a deal that the people did not vote for.
10. Conclusion - unless a Tory MP resigns from the party before next March they are complicit in this Chequers Deal and as guilty as those who watered down what people voted for (the Repeal of the Treaty of Rome).