Thursday, 13 December 2018

This is the upshot of last night's vote.

1) The Tories are stuck with Theresa May until March 29th 2019.

2) Any General Election between now and then would be fought with her as leader, not a Boris or David Davies figure...

3) That means a potential loss of votes to "No Deal" Brexit parties, which could be sufficient to lose them seats.

4) Knowing that, if the Labour Party calls a vote of no confidence in the government every single Tory MP will vote with Theresa May, regardless of how they voted in the leadership election.

5) If Labour tries and fails to topple the weakest PM in a generation, then they will end up discredited in the eyes of their members.

6) Therefore the chances of an advanced General Election are lessened.

7) On 12/12/18 Tory MPs weren't just voting about May as a leader. It was more about her version of Brexit. They knew that her replacement could have supported "no deal", but if they voted for THAT then sufficient Tory Remain MPs would have departed the party to join the Lib Dems or perhaps another Remain party, leaving the existing Tories with a better policy, but so depleted in MPs that the government would have been ousted by the opposition (swelled by the Tory defectors).

8) Therefore the next Tory leader will be in the same mould as Theresa May, judging by the voting stats, and will back the Chequers Deal.

9) The 37% NO DEAL wing of the Tories are damned now. If they leave the party, the government falls. If they stay, then they are to be viewed as propping the treacherous 63% who backed a deal that the people did not vote for.

10. Conclusion - unless a Tory MP resigns from the party before next March they are complicit in this Chequers Deal and as guilty as those who watered down what people voted for (the Repeal of the Treaty of Rome).

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